Maybe my conspiracy has no meat to it yet...
Let me just look deeper at details:
Look at the fingers. Also, the back of Chakal’s hand is covered.
Couldn’t find clear images of his sword except for the statue at certain scenes but notice similarities?
Jorge has said that Captain Mondragon is not Chakal, but that they are connected somehow. I’m personally sticking to the “he’s Chakal” theory because that’s simpler and more interesting to me.